Shaking Off the Cobwebs

Less Than Dave has been working hard getting all of the 2012 lineups and depth charts updated for you, and they are in GREAT SHAPE. You are not going to find depth charts this current and detailed on any site right now.

As for me, in the wake of another Christmas holiday come and gone, I figured it was time to get back on the fantasy baseball horse. I got the itch to do some mock drafting today, but I saw that Mock Draft Central is only currently offering generic mixed 5x5 drafts right now. *frowns* I then decided to study some ADPs instead, and it brought that big, toothless smile back to my face to see Matt Kemp in the #1 slot. We'll save the "first round debate" for another day, however, as I am going to focus on some preliminary draft-day value observations right now. I'll remind you that MDC isn't doing values for NFBC drafts yet, so the ADPs I am using are all for single-catcher mixed 5x5 leagues. I will be looking for values in terms of a 15-team, standard NFBC Main Event league. There was at least one player at each position that jumped out at me. Onward....

C - Wilson Ramos, Nationals - He played in only 113 games because of the presence of Pudge, but he still managed a .267 / 15 HR / 52 RBI line with a very respectable .779 OPS. He also shows decent maturity at the plate, with almost a 9% walk rate and an average K rate of 17.5%. If you couple all that with the fact that the starting job is finally completely his, then his ADP of 226 (16th round) looks pretty good. Plus, the dude survived a kidnapping, so he even has luck on his side.

1B - Ike Davis, Mets - Ike was rolling at the beginning of last season, as he was hitting .302 with 7 HR and 25 RBI through his first 35 games; all that promise abruptly evaporated when he snapped his ankle in early May and sat out the rest of the year. He should be back fully healthy at the start of the season, and he currently has an ADP of 217 (15th round). That's a great place to get your corner infielder. That said, his position will probably rise a round or two towards the start of the season, as most experienced players will know that this guy is a draft-day value.

2B - Jose Altuve, Astros - Second base was a little tougher, as I love Ben Zobrist at #103, but the seventh round doesn't qualify as much for value. Altuve came up in the second half of last season and held his own quite well. His numbers don't astound you (.276 / 2 HR / 26 R / 7 SB in 234 PAs), but they were pretty good for a rookie jumping up straight from AA in a horrible lineup. His plus speed, skill set, and minor league history indicate that he is capable of good average, 8-10 HRs, and 20 or more steals in a full season. Oh yea, and he'll be batting second as the everyday second baseman. That's pretty good value for a middle infielder at #273 (19th round).

SS - Dee Gordon, Dodgers - LA frustrated the crap out of me last year by taking so long to commit to Gordon as the starting shortstop, but they finally came to their senses. This guy has elite speed and he is going to lead off, so the potential for runs and steals is great. He stole 54 bases in 546 combined PAs between AAA and the majors last season (24 in 233 PAs in The Show), so that should show you what possibility you're looking at. He even hit .304 in inconsistent playing time. His current ADP is 212 (15th round), so if you miss out on filling SS early then he is a good backup option. I believe that he'll make a great MI this season.

SS - Zach Cozart, Reds - I was excited to pick this guy off the waiver wire last year, and he promptly blew out his elbow...oh well. At least it was his non-throwing elbow, and he should be back and ready for a job in spring training. It's not like the Reds are stupid enough to try Paul Janish again, right? This kid had a great 2011 until the injury, and he has 10-20 potential in the Great American Bandbox. Take a flyer for a MI at #303 (21st round).

3B - Mike Moustakas, Royals - Looking for value, the third base field is horribly weak, indeed. In my mind, Moustakas is the best value player on the ADP list (#240, end of the 16th), which ends with Juan Uribe at #283 (yes it's pretty much all THAT bad). M+M's .263 / 5 HR / 30 RBI line in 89 games looks pretty horrible, but when you take a look at how he finished the season, he looks a little more like the player many expect he will become. After August 15th, Moustakas hit .379 with 4 HRs, 12 doubles, and 19 RBI in 36 games. That and his pedigree make him worth a chance if you still need a CI or a backup third baseman.

OF - Jose Tabata, Pirates - Views may have soured on Tabata after injuries muddied the waters of his first full big league season, but the Pirates signed him through his first year of free agency; they are committed to leading him off and giving him all the chances he needs to prove them right. He doesn't have the power potential that you would expect from a corner outfielder, but his speed and plate discipline make him a worthwhile fantasy outfielder. You can expect a .280 average with 90-100 runs and around 25 steals in a full season, and that's OK for a 15th round OF (223 ADP).

OF - J.D. Martinez, Astros - Houston has some nice young pieces that Astros fans can actually be excited about, and there could be more if they are able to find takers for Myers or Wandy. Like his teammate Altuve, J.D. Martinez held his own in the majors after making the leap from AA. He hit a respectable .274 with 6 HRs and 35 RBI in 53 second half games, and he projects to bat third and play left field in 2012. You can expect around a .285 / 15-20 HR / 80+ RBI line, and right now you can get him in the 19th round (ADP 281).

OF - Dayan Viciedo, White Sox - Whether he plays outfield, third, or DHs, Viciedo has major-league power potential. He WILL be playing this year, as the Sox will find some place for him in the lineup, and certainly has the ability to hit 20+ HRs with a reasonable average (think .265-.275). GM Kenny Williams said that the team is rebuilding, and Dayan is definitely part of the youth movement. The soon-to-be 23-year-old has an ADP of 369 (25th round). Where else can you get that kind of power potential that late? Certainly not Nyjer Morgan.

Pitcher values to come soon...